Essays on transition challenges for alternative propulsion vehicles and transportation systems

Technology transitions require the formation of a self-sustaining market through alignment of consumers’ interests, producers’ capabilities, infrastructure development, and regulations. In this research I develop a broad behavioral dynamic model of the prospective transition to alternative fuel vehicles. In Essay one I focus on the premise that automobile purchase decisions are strongly shaped by cultural norms, personal experience, and social interactions. To capture these factors, I examine important social processes conditioning alternative vehicle diffusion, including the generation of consumer awareness through feedback from driving experience, word of mouth and marketing. Through analysis of a simulation model I demonstrate the existence of a critical threshold for the sustained adoption of alternative technologies, and show how the threshold depends on behavioral, economic and physical system parameters. Word-of-mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is important in stimulating diffusion. Further, I show that marketing and subsidies for alternatives must remain in place for long periods for diffusion to become self-sustaining. Results are supported with an analysis of the transition to the horseless carriage at the turn of the 19 century. In the second Essay I explore the co-evolutionary interdependence between alternative fuel vehicle demand and the requisite refueling infrastructure. The analysis is based on a dynamic behavioral model with an explicit spatial structure. I find, first, a bi-stable, low demand equilibrium with urban adoption clusters. Further, the diffusion of more fuel efficient vehicles, optimal for the long run, is less likely to succeed, illustrating the existence of trade-offs between the goals of the early stage transition, and those of the long-run equilibrium. Several other feedbacks that significantly influence dynamics including, supply and demand, and supply-coordination behaviors, are discussed. In Essay three I examine how technology learning and spillovers impact technology trajectories of competing incumbents hybrid and radical entrants. I develop a technology lifecycle model, with an emphasis on technology heterogeneity. In the model,